Shelf life prediction of gluten-free bread formulated with quinoa flour: comparison of packaging materials using mathematical modeling and survival analysis

Abstract

Producing gluten-free products represents a challenge in the field of food engineering. Several studies have focused on using flour from Andean grains as an alternative for the production of gluten-free foods. Likewise, determining the shelf life of products is a relevant factor to guarantee product quality. In this aspect, traditional mathematical methods are often biased; however, recently, survival analysis has been proposed as a more accurate alternative to estimate the shelf life of products. This research aimed to model and predict shelf life using reaction kinetics, mathematical modeling by moisture migration, and survival analysis of gluten-free quinoa bread packaged in Oriented Polypropylene (OPP) and Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE), stored at 25 °C and 80% relative humidity. Shelf life by reaction kinetics was limited mainly by hardness, obtaining a value of 3.15 days for bread in OPP and 1.88 days for LDPE. In the moisture migration prediction, the shelf life was 50.26 days for OPP and 43.53 days for LDPE. Finally, the shelf life determined by survival analysis was 4.47 days for OPP and 3.89 days for LDPE, when 50% of the gluten-free bread consumers rejected the product. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2025.